Nfl Bookie Picks
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Our Last Chance Value Picks won again last week and we are now 15-3 ATS over the last six weeks. Let’s check out which lines have drifted too far and keep crushing the books!
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Setting aside the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game where there are wholesale changes on the Steelers’ starting roster this week, this is about the largest line shift on the board this week, along with the Titans/Texans game below. Our Last Chance Value NFL picks are borne, for the most part, out of public perception moving the line and not an entire roster change, which is why the Steelers were not included in this edition.
The Lions line has now crossed two critical numbers (4 and 6), which gives them excellent value against a Vikings’ team that enters this matchup with a 6-9 record and has failed to cash against the number over their last six contests. The big question mark is whether or not Detroit QB Matthew Stafford will be under center after suffering several injuries over the last few weeks.
But if you listen to Lions’ interim coach, Darrell Bevell, there’s a decent chance he plays, “You’re going to have to convince me a lot that this guy’s not going to go.” Let’s roll the dice and take our chances because even if it is Chase Daniel under center, the fact is, Minnesota is not a very good team and for them to be laying north of six on the road against anyone is a stretch.
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Lions +6 ½ (-108), shop up to +3 ½ at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Bills Stadium
I am particularly fond of this game because it is one of my top three best bets in a weekly column I write, called Swinger’s Picks. If you take a look at that piece, which was written on Thursday morning, you will see that this line went as low as 2 ½ over at BetOnline and has now bounced up to three, due to what I believe is sharp money taking advantage of a number that had dropped too low.
Well, guess what? It’s still too low at all of the best betting sites, and we’re getting an excellent value on the Bills because, like the Dolphins, they too have something to play for in this contest. The public perception is that Miami needs it more because they will enter the playoffs for the time since 2016 with a W, but the Bills will lock in the No. 2 seed with a win. Ensuring home-field advantage throughout the playoffs against anyone but the Chiefs.
Bottom line is, who ya got, Tua or Allen? Me too.
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Bills -3 (-110), shop up to -5 ½ at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, January 3rd, 2021 - 4:25 PM ET at NRG Stadium
This game looks like a shootout to me. Both defenses have been racked with injuries, and neither can stop a nose bleed at this point. The Texans are at home and have shot up three points, traveling through and off of the 6, and the second most important number in football – seven.
The last time these teams tangoed was in Week 6 when Tennessee emerged with a 42-36 overtime victory, and this should be more of the same. However, let’s not forget that the venue has shifted to Houston, and the NFL odds are actually 3 ½ points higher on Houston now than they were back on October 18th, even though the Texans have home-field advantage.
Well, all know Ryan Tannehill has exceeded expectations and that Derrick Henry is a wagon. However, Tennessee got torched by the Packers last week, as their offense was stuck in neutral in a 40-14 loss. I have said on more than one occasion this season that the Titans are this year’s paper tigers, and the Texans will prove it by keeping this one within the margins.
Last Chance Value NFL Pick:Texans +7 ½ (-105), shop up to +4 ½ at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
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Bookie Picks
